Foresight Research Group

Our goal

We explore, simulate, and design pathways to a sustainable future.
We do this by applying qualitative, quantitative, and system-oriented methods
and participatory approaches that enable the active involvment of stakeholders.

Our team

Mathias

Mathias Kirchner

Senior scientist

Economist (ecological, environmental, agricultural)
Modellerer (System dynamics, macroeconomic, integrated land use modelling)

More than 10 years of experience in inter- and transdisciplinary research projects, mostly centered around climate change issues (land use, mitigation, just transition)

Bild_Nathalie

Nathalie Spittler

Senior scientist

Systems Thinking
Ecological economist
System dynamics modelling

Long-term experience in inter- and transdisciplinary research projects covering issues related to sustainable development, such as renewable energies, SDGs and just transition 

Bild_Daniel

Daniel Gerdes

Project staff

PhD candidate at BOKU University
MSc in Socio-Ecological Economics and Policy
Ecological economist





Eva

Eva Wretschitsch

Project staff

PhD candidate at BOKU University
MSc in Environmental and Bio-Resources Management
Ecological economist

Daniel_K

Daniel Körner

Project staff

International teaching and consulting activities in the field of participatory and collaborative project development; comprehensive support for sustainability projects and project teams.

Peter

Peter Hachenberger

Associate member

PhD in computer science
Currently interested in stock-flow consistent macro-economic modelling

What we do

Expertise

We work on exploring sustainable futures.
To us, the broad and widely used term foresight means to engage in systematic and critical considerations about possible future development paths – in a scientifically sound and ideally participatory process.

We apply three main methods from system dynamics in most of our research projects:
(1) Causal loop diagrams (CLD) – a qualitative system dynamics methods that enables researches and stakeholders to visualize systems and their causal relationships
(2) Quantitative simulations with the system dynamics model iSDG – especially the Austrian version of it that we built, maintain and constantly improve.
(3) Scenario development (various approaches)

For the iSDG model we have a Memorandum of Understanding with the Millennium Institute who owns and developed the model.

At the moment, we mainly focus on finding just transition pathways for the climate crisis. That means we that we look beyond the sustainable development goal (SDG) climate action (SDG13) and aim to identify potential synergies and trade-offs with other SDGs, e.g. reducing inequalities (SDG10) or decent work (SDG8).

Our research takes place at the science-policy and science-society interface with a medium to long-term time horizon (ca. 2030-2050).

Projects - Current

Addressing opportunities for a democratic climate transition by defining and testing new democratic pathways

Topic: Democratic pathways for a sustainable transition

Role: Partner

Methods: stakeholder participation methods

Funding: EU Horizon Cluster 2 – 2023

Duration: 2024-2026

Q2-Pathways
Bridging methodological and conceptual cleavages between quantitative and qualitative approaches and multiple perspectives

Topic: Bridge qualitative and quantitative transformation pathways

Role: Partner

Methods: stakeholder participation methods

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2023-2026

Transdisciplinary ANd Deliberative equity appraisal of transition policies in Energy and Mobility

Topic: Create and implement just low-carbon transition pathways

Role: Partner / WP lead

Methods: systemic literature review; causal loop diagrams

Funding: EU Horizon Cluster 5 – 2021

Duration: 2022-2025

Co‐creating future visions and transition pathways for the SDGs climate action, inequality and decent work and economic growth

Topic: Co-create transformation pathways for achieving of SDG goals

Role: Lead

Methods: causal loop diagrams, model simulations, scenarios

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2022-2024

Identifying Socially Fair Options for a Climate Neutral Transformation of Housing and Mobility in Austria

Topic: Identifying socially fair climate mitigation options

Role: Partner

Methods: stakeholder participation methods

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2021-2024

Earth4All is an international initiative to accelerate the systems-change we need for an equitable future on a finite planet.

Topic: Systems-change needed for an equitable future on a finite planet

Role: Partner

Methods: model simulations

Funding: Club of Rome

Duration: 2023-2024

Assessing the state of knowledge on climate change in Austria (consequences, mitigation, adaptation, transformation pathways)

Topic: State of knowledge on climate change and climate action in Austria

Role: CLA & LA

Methods: expert assessment

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2022-2025

Scientists and artists have joined together to present options on how the UN Sustainable Development Goals may be implemented

Topic: Identify options on how the SDGs may be implemented

Role: Contributing scientists

Methods: literature review; policy briefs; expert assessments

Funding: in-kind

Duration: from 2019-2024

Projects - Finished

FARECarbon
Identifying model uncertainties, effects of carbon pricing, and recommendations on the design of carbon pricing in Austria

Topic: Model uncertainties in macroeconomic modelling of carbon pricing policies.

Role: Partner / WP lead

Methods: systematic model comparison

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2020-2023

Skills4Change
Promoting climate protection and climate change adaptation in companies through transformative competencies

Topic: Skills for transformative competence in a corporate context

Role: Partner

Methods: stakeholder participation methods

Funding: StartClim2022

Duration: 2022-2023

iSDG_KlimAT
Establish a national SDG model for Austria in order to capture synergies and trade-offs between the climate goals and other SDGs

Topic: Establish a national SDG model for Austria tom capture SDG interactions

Role: Lead

Methods: model development

Funding: StartClim2021

Duration: 2021-2022

Evaluate the current knowledge on the subject of land use and climate change and their interrelationships in Austria

Topic: State of knowledge on climate change and land use in Austria

Role: LA & CA

Methods: expert assessment

Funding: ACRP

Duration: 2019-2023

Evaluate the National Energy and Climate Plan for Austria and identify evidence-based recommendations on its improvement

Topic: Evaluate the National Energy and Climate Plan for Austria and identify recommendations

Role: Coordinator (Mathias)

Methods: expert assessment / project coordination

Funding: in-kind

Duration: 2019-2020

Publications (selected)

This is only a selected list of publications that have been published as part of Foresight Research group projects.
For a probably more up-to-date list of publications of the Foresight Research group, please visit our ResearchGate lab profile.
For a full list of publications by our team members, please see the links provided above.
The design for highlighting our publications below has been inspired by the great ERC project refuel (worth checking out!).

Journal Papers

Three foci at the science-policy interface for systemic Sustainable Development Goal acceleration
Pradhan, P., Weitz, N., Daioglou, V., Abrahão, G.M., Allen, C., Ambrósio, G., Arp, F., Asif, F., Bennich, T., Benton, T.G., Biermann, F., Cao, M., Carlsen, H., Chen, F., Chen, M., Daams, M.N., Dawes, J.H.P., Dhakal, S., Gilmore, E., Miguel, L.J., Hubacek, K., Hu, Y., Jager, W., Kc, S., Kearney, N.M., Khot, U.A., Kluck, T., Kulkarni, S., Leininger, J., Li, C., Li, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Parrado-Hernando, G., Pedercini, M., Phuyal, R.K., Prell, C., Rijal, A., Schweizer, V., Sijtsma, F.J., Soergel, B., Spittler, N., van Vuuren, D., Warchold, A., Weber, E., Wicke, B., Widerberg, O., Wilts, R., Wingens, C., Wu, C., Xing, Q., Yan, J., Yuan, Z., Zhou, X., Zimm, C., 2024. Three foci at the science-policy interface for systemic Sustainable Development Goal acceleration. Nature Communications 15, 8600.

Paper (Open Access)

Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria – Searching for a triple dividend
Kettner, C., Leoni, T., Köberl, J., Kortschak, D., Kirchner, M., Sommer, M., Wallenko, L., Bachner, G., Mayer, J., Spittler, N., Kulmer, V. (2024). Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria – Searching for a triple dividend. Energy Economics 137, 107783.

Paper (Open Access)

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Schirpke, U., Tasser, E., Borsky, S., Braun, M., Eitzinger, J., Gaube, V., Getzner, M., Glatzel, S., Gschwantner, T., Kirchner, M., Leitinger, G., Mehdi-Schulz, B., Mitter, H., Scheifinger, H., Thaler, S., Thom, D., Thaler, T. (2023). Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria. Journal of Environmental Management 345, 118728.
Paper (Open Access)

Carbon footprint of Austrian beef in an international context

Kirchner, M., Pölz, W., Mayrhofer, H., Hickersberger, M., Sinabell, F. (2023). ‪Carbon footprint of Austrian beef in an international context‬. Austrian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Studies 34, 19–26.
Paper (Corrected Version)
Paper (Original – contains wrong data in table 2 and missing data in table 3)

Handling a complex agenda: A review and assessment of methods to analyse SDG entity interactions

Horvath, S.-M., Muhr, M.M., Kirchner, M., Toth, W., Germann, V., Hundscheid, L., Vacik, H., Scherz, M., Kreiner, H., Fehr, F., Borgwardt, F., Gühnemann, A., Becsi, B., Schneeberger, A., Gratzer, G. (2022). Handling a complex agenda: A review and assessment of methods to analyse SDG entity interactions. Environmental Science & Policy 131, 160–176.
Paper (Open Access)

Uncertainty concepts for integrated modeling – Review and application for identifying uncertainties and uncertainty propagation pathways

Kirchner, M., Mitter, H., Schneider, U.A., Sommer, M., Falkner, K., Schmid, E. (2021). Uncertainty concepts for integrated modeling – Review and application for identifying uncertainties and uncertainty propagation pathways. Environmental Modelling & Software 135, 104905.
Paper (Open Access)

Implications of Renewable Resource Dynamics for Energy System Planning: The Case of Geothermal and Hydropower in Kenya

Spittler, N., Davidsdottir, B., Shafiei, E., Diemer, A. (2021). Implications of Renewable Resource Dynamics for Energy System Planning: The Case of Geothermal and Hydropower in Kenya. Energy Policy.
Paper (Paywall)

Leverage points for sustainability transformation : a review on interventions in food and energy systems

Dorninger, C., Abson, D.J., Apetrei, C.I., Derwort, P., Ives, C.D., Klaniecki, K., Lam, D.P.M., Langsenlehner, M., Riechers, M., Spittler, N., Wehrden, H.V. (2020). Leverage points for sustainability transformation : a review on interventions in food and energy systems. Ecological Economics 171, 106570.
Paper (Paywall)

Exploiting Synergy of Carbon Pricing and Other Policy Instruments for Deep Decarbonization

Kirchner, M., Schmidt, J., Wehrle, S. (2019). Exploiting Synergy of Carbon Pricing and Other Policy Instruments for Deep Decarbonization. Joule 3, 891–893.
Paper (Paywall)

Monographs / Book Chapters / Project Reports

Sozioökonomische und klimatische Treiber der Änderung der Landnutzung in Österreich

Borsky, S., Thaler, T., Gaube, V., Kirchner, M., Loibl, W., Mehdi-Schulz, B., Schirpke, U., Schneider, S., Zuvela-Aloise, M. (2024). Kapitel 3. Sozioökonomische und klimatische Treiber der Änderung der Landnutzung in Österreich, in: Jandl, R., Tappeiner, U., Foldal, C.B., Erb, K. (Eds.), APCC Special Report: Landnutzung und Klimawandel in Österreich. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 163–216.
Book chapter (Opean Access)

Ein SDG Modell für Österreich – Erfassung der Wechselwirkungen zw. SDG13 & anderen SDGs zur Simulation von Entwicklungspfaden & Kosten

Spittler, N., Kirchner, M. (2022). iSDG_KlimAT: Ein SDG Modell für Österreich – Erfassung der Wechselwirkungen zw. SDG13 & anderen SDGs zur Simulation von Entwicklungspfaden & Kosten. Endbericht von StartClim21/22.A, in: BMK, BMWFW, Klima- und Energiefonds, Land Oberösterreich (Eds.), StartClim21/22: Handeln Und Aktivieren. Wien.
Final Report

Maßnahmen: Was kann Klimapolitik leisten?

Kirchner, M., Strunk, B. (2021). Maßnahmen: Was kann Klimapolitik leisten?, in: Beigewum, attac, Armutskonferenz (Eds.), Klimasoziale Politik – Eine Gerechte Und Emissionsfreie Gesellschaft Gestalten. bahoe books, Wien, pp. 57–70. 
Book (Open Access pdf)

Energy Modelling for Reaching SDG7
Gladkykh, G., Spittler, N., Diemer, A. (2020). Energy Modelling for Reaching SDG7, in: Leal Filho, W., Azul, A.M., Brandli, L., Lange Salvia, A., Wall, T. (Eds.), Affordable and Clean Energy. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 1–12.
Book Chapter (Paywall)
Systemic Issues and Multi-Stakeholders Partnerships for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals
Diemer, A., Collste, D., Spittler, N. (2020). Systemic Issues and Multi-Stakeholders Partnerships for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals, in: Leal Filho, W., Azul, A.M., Brandli, L., Lange Salvia, A., Wall, T. (Eds.), Partnerships for the Goals. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 1–14.
Book Chapter (Paywall)
Referenzplan als Grundlage für einen wissenschaftlich fundierten und mit den Pariser Klimazielen in Einklang stehenden Nationalen Energie- und Klimaplan für Österreich (Ref-NEKP)
Kirchengast, G., Kromp-Kolb, H., Steininger, K.W., Stagl, S., Kirchner, M., Ambach, C., Grohs, J., Gutsohn, A., Peisker, J., Strunk, B. (2019). Referenzplan als Grundlage für einen wissenschaftlich fundierten und mit den Pariser Klimazielen in Einklang stehenden Nationalen Energie- und Klimaplan für Österreich (Ref-NEKP). CCCA Wien-Graz – Verlag der ÖAW, Wien, Österreich.
Book (Open Access pdf)

Science-Society / Science-Policy Publications

Earth for All Deutschland
Club of Rome, Wuppertal Institut (2024). Earth for all Deutschland – Aufbruch in eine Zukunft für alle. Oekoem, München, p. 280, ISBN: 978-3-98726-111-4
Oekom Verlag (in German only)
Stellungnahme von Expertinnen und Experten des CCCA zum Factsheet: „Kostenwahrheit CO2“ des BMK
Graßl, H., Kirchner, M., Kromp-Kolb, H., Stagl, S., Steininger, K., Getzner, M., Kettner-Marx, C., Kirchengast, G., Köppl, A., Meyer, I., Sommer, M., Uhl-Hädicke, I. (2020). Stellungnahme von Expertinnen und Experten des CCCA zum Factsheet: „Kostenwahrheit CO2“ des BMK. CCCA.
Statement (in German only)
The EU’s Common Agriculture Policy and Sustainable Farming: A statement by scientists
Pe’er, G., Lakner, S., Seppelt, R., Bezák, P., Bonn, A., Concepción, E.D., Creutzig, F., Daub, C.-H., Díaz, M., Dieker, P., Eisenhauer, N., Hagedorn, G., Hansjürgens, B., Harrer-Puchner, G., Herzon, I., Hickler, T., Jetzkowitz, J., Kazakova, Y., Kindlmann, P., Kirchner, M., Klein, A.-M., Linow, S., Lomba, A., López-Bao, J.V., Metta, M., Morales, M.B., Moreira, F., Mupepele, A.-C., Navarro, A., Oppermann, R., Rac, I., Röder, N., Martina Schäfer, Sirami, C., Streck, C., Šumrada, T., Tielbörger, K., Underberg, E., Wagener-Lohse, G., Baumann, F. (2020). The EU’s Common Agriculture Policy and Sustainable Farming: A statement by scientists.
Statement
Antworten auf zentrale Fragen zur Einführung von CO2-Preisen. Gestaltungsoptionen und ihre Auswirkungen für den schnellen Übergang in die klimafreundliche Gesellschaft
Mattauch, L., Creutzig, F., aus dem Moore, N., Franks, M., Funke, F., Jakob, M., Sager, L., Schwarz, M., Voß, A., Beck, M.-L., Daub, C.-H., Drupp, M., Ekardt, F., Hagedorn, G., Kirchner, M., Kruse, T., Loew, T., Neuhoff, K., Neuweg, I., Peterson, S., Roesti, M., Schneider, G., Schmidt, R., Schwarze, R., Siegmeier, J., Thalmann, P., Wallacher, J. (2019). Antworten auf zentrale Fragen zur Einführung von CO2-Preisen. Gestaltungsoptionen und ihre Auswirkungen für den schnellen Übergang in die klimafreundliche Gesellschaft. Diskussionsbeiträge der Scientists for Future.
Statement (in German only)